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April 25, 2011
SBA Communications (SBAC) buy 40.00, stop loss at 39.00, target 42.00. SBAC sold off on 3.21.11, but from there they recovered, pulled back and now have taken out the recovery high. This confirms and ABC to 41.79, this is in confluence with the high of 41.95 from 3.16.11.
Checkpoint Systems (CKP) buy 20.25, stop loss at 19.50, target 22.50. CKP has been channeling 19.50 to high 22’s. They bounced off of support mid last week. We are looking for a return to the channel highs.
See our mid-term update below.
This morning the futures are up a bit, Dow 32, Nasdaq 5, S&P 4
This past week was a volatile one, down sharply early, then recovering to positive. We are pushing against the recent highs, a triple top failure or a test coming off a higher low, allowing a break out ?? Either way, the markets are still in an uptrend, or neutral.
The Vix broke support, which shows we are record levels of optimism.
The Dollar has broken all recent support, we need to go back to 2008 to get this low.
To the positive, we have more room to upside on the MACD, it is not showing overbought. The Stochastic is, but that is on the daily timeframe, the midterm says there’s more room to go.
All in all we are still holding OK, as you can see by the following daily chart of the S&P 500 we had nearly completed a standard 1/1 ABC, then retraced. Our retracement has not penetrated the bottom of the blue box, this is the 61.8% retracement, so even on a daily timeframe there is no damage done.
On the weekly candles, you can see that that the events of a few weeks were a mere blip on the screen, yet it was enough to define as a mid-term pullback.
So we remain cautious as the price of oil rises, unrest in the middle east, and Japan struggles with their natural disaster, however, there is starting be some strengthening in the Jobs. Weekly Jobless Claims have been moving down under 400,000 on the four week average, though about 330,000 would be preferable, and the economy is beginning to add Jobs. We have a buy signal with our stop below the low of 1249.
Keep an ear open for when they start to talk about the Fed Raising Rates. The European Central Bank raised their rates again this past week from 1.00 to 1.25 %
Some Key Figures:
This past week was tough on the dollar, which sent commodities and interest rates higher.
Oil - $ 112 – up 6
Gold - Closed at 1507 up 13 points on the week and at new all time highs
Dollar index just broke through its recent lows, it is setting at 74.01
Yield 10 year note – closed the week 3.40, down .18 for the week and remaining well above 3.00, and now trading back and forth over/under 3.50%
Next week's economic calendar:
Monday – New Home Sales
Tuesday – Case Shiller Index, Consumer Confidence
Wednesday – MBA Mortgage Applications, Durable Goods Orders, Crude Inventories, FOMC Rate Decision
Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims, GDP Advanced estimate for 1st Qtr, Pending Home Sales,
Friday – Personal Income and Spending, PCE Prices (fed watches this closely), Chicago PMI, U of Mich Consumer Sentiment.
Geron (GERN) buy 4.80, stop loss at 4.60, target 5.20. This is a nice channeling stock. Support above 4.60, highs over 5.20. GERN closed at 4.90
Avago Technologies (AVGO) buy 32.50, stop loss at 31.00, target 34.50. AVGO has been trending up nicely. In mid February they spiked up to 34.60 before coming back down to the support trend line. It is now heading back up toward that recent high. AVGO closed at 32.60
Peabody Energy (BTU) Buy 64.00, stop loss at 62.00, target 72.00. BTU is trying to base here at 64.00. Though it has been quite a fall from 73, it is still a higher low than that of March. We are looking for a new higher high, but put our initial target just below the previous high. BTU closed at 66.02
Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL) buy 9.50, stop loss at 8.90, target 12.00. MPEL ran yesterday following Friday’s Doji. I attached a link of the weekly below. Looks lit it wants to run. MPEL closed at 10.00
Cameco (CCJ) buy 28.00, stop loss at 27.00, target 32.00. CCJ has been channeling with in the long candle that was formed when it gapped down in mid March. It is funding support at the bottom now. CCJ closed at 29.09
NVidia (NVDA) buy 18.50, stop loss at 16.50, target 22.50. NVDA could be forming a double bottom here at 17.00 coming off of the 26 high. We are looking for a 61.8% retracement of the decline that would bring us up to 22.60. NVDA closed at 18.52
Take Two (TTWO) buy 15.05, stop loss at 14.69, target 16.00. This is a quick channeling play. We’re playing yesterday’s Doji on support with a stop below the consolidation low. TTWO closed at 15.59
Nike (NKE) buy 79.40, stop loss at 77.00, target 84.00. NKE gapped down about a month ago. They gapped down from 85 to 78.00. They have now broken into the gap and look to fill it. NKE closed at 80.19
MoneyGram International (MGI) buy 3.40, stop loss at 3.20, target 3.80. MGI has been trending up nicely. They pulled back to the 20 day EMA and bounced off. We are looking for this trend to continue. MGI closed at 3.57
Chevron (CVX) buy 104.00, stop loss at 100.00, target 115. CVX has been trending up nicely. Yesterday’s retracement pulled it back toward the 50 day moving average where it has found support in the past. CVX closed at 108.13
Cerner Corp (CERN) buy 109.00, stop loss at 107.00, target 124.00. CERN has been trending up nicely. Late last week they pulled back to the 20 day moving average stopped and formed a Doji there yesterday. We are projecting an ABC to 124.37. See the following. CERN closed at 112.31
PDL BioPharma (PDLI) sell short at 6.25, stop loss at 6.50, target 5.00. PDLI has been channeling and stalled as they are approaching recent resistance. PDLI closed at 6.28
Flotek Industries (FTK) buy 9.00, stop loss at 8.00, target 11.40. FTK broke out Friday on strong volume. An ABC projects to 11.41 with a stop below the recent consolidation allows for a stop at 8.00, leaving a nice risk/reward ratio. FTK closed at 8.93
EBay (EBAY) buy 31.50, stop loss at 29.00, target 37.75. EBAY is coming off of a low that is higher than the previous low. An ABC projects to 37.74. If we place our stop comfortably below the recent low or “C” point of 29.61, it allows for nice risk to reward ratio. EBAY closed at 31.95
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), buy 8.40, stop loss at 7.95, target 9.50. It looks like AMD formed the right side of a W bottom early this week as it popped up yesterday. Our stop is below Monday’s low with a target of the recent highs just over 9.50. AMD closed at 8.71
Sequenom (SQNM) buy 6.80, stop loss at 6.50, target 8.25. SQNM popped back to life yesterday as it took out the old support trend line on a pop in volume. SQNM closed at 7.24
Gold ETF (GLD) buy 142.00, stop loss at 137.00, target 148.00. GLD broke out yesterday confirming an ABC projection to 148.04. GLD closed at 146.74
Junior Gold Minors Index (GDXJ) buy 41.00, stop loss at 37.50, target 45.00. As GLD broke out, the minors should follow suit. We are looking for at least a double top at 45.00. GDXJ closed at 41.85
Qualcomm (QCOM) buy 53.00 stop loss at 50.00, target 59.00. QCOM is working it’s way back up after selling in early march. Our stop is just below the March low with our initial target of the February highs. QCOM closed at 56.74
FX Energy (FXEN) buy 8.75, stop loss at 7.75, target 12.00. FXEN sold off with the broad market in early March, but check out the recent recover. We are looking to get back to the recent high of 12.00. FXEN closed at 8.07
Endeavour Silver (EXK) buy 9.75, stop loss at 8.50, target 12.50. EXK is testing the 10 – 10.50 level for the third time as it tries to keep up with the price of silver. We are looking for a break out and ABC projection to 12.63. EXK closed at 11.79
NPS Pharmaceuticals (NPSP) buy 8.50, stop loss at 7.90, target 10.00. NPS gapped up to 10.17 in late January, they then drifted back to fill the gap and then some. However, yesterday they popped on 1.2 million shares of volume. NPSP closed at 9.13
Honeywell (HON) buy 58.25, stop loss at 56.00, target 66.00. HON has been a steady climber. They climbed consistently from August through February, they consolidated for a few weeks and have now broke out of that consolidation. A 1:.618 ABC takes us to 66.17. HON closed at 60.72
Take Two Interactive (TTWO) buy 15.50, stop loss at 14.75, target 19.25. TTWO had a nice pop from 12 to nearly 17, they have since done a 38.2% retracement and lifted off. We are targeting an ABC to 19.41. TTWO closed at 15.59
WebMD (WBMD) buy 53.00, stop loss at 52.00, target 58.00. WBMD is in a consolidation phase right now after back filling a gap up in late February. We are looking for a return to the recent highs of 58.00 with a stop below this consolidation. The risk to reward looks very good. WBMD closed at 55.25
Juniper (JNPR) buy 40.75, stop loss at 38.00, target 44.00. JNPR pulled back from the recent highs of 44 and found support above 38. This continues the trend of making higher highs and higher lows. Our initial target is a double top, thereafter an ABC projects to 49.48. JNPR closed at 40.08
Powershares Aerospace and Defense (PPA) buy 20.00, stop loss at 19.00, target 22.11. This is the example we spoke of on air yesterday morning, we had a perfect ABC to 20.58, now we are looking for the next one to 22.11. PPA closed at 20.23
Cummins (CMI) buy 102.00, stop loss at 102.00, target 114.00. CMI had been trending up very well, the topped out and pulled back with the broad market to bounce off the 200 day moving average. We have our stop below last week’s low with an initial target of a double top. CMI closed at 108.94
Salesforce.com (CRM) buy 125, stop loss at 125, target 145. CRM pulled back to support at 120 and bounced yesterday. We have a tight stop below yesterday’s low with a target near the upper end of the channel. CRM closed at 139.87
International Coal (ICO) buy 9.75, stop loss at 9.10, target 12.00. ICO has been trending up following the 50 day moving average. We are looking for this trend to continue. ICO closed at 10.87
Dicks Sporting Goods (DKS) buy 40.00, stop loss at 38.00, target 44.00. DKS just broke out of a channel that was consolidating the move from 24 to 38. Our initial target is to 44.00. DKS closed at 41.54
Arch Coal (ACI) buy 35.00, stop loss at 32.00, target 43.00. ACI is pushing against resistance as it works its way off the run from 24. We are projecting an ABC to 42.98. ACI closed at 34.64
Imperial Oil (IMO) buy 51.00, stop loss at 48.00, target 59.00. IMO has been on a tare as the rice of and political unrest has unfolded. We are looking to play this momentum. With our stop below Tuesday’s low. IMO closed at 53.08
TJX Companies (TJX) buy 49.00, stop loss at 47.00, target 53.00. TJX broke out yesterday on stronger guidance for their first quarter. The chart shows confirmation of an ABC that projects to 53.15. TJX closed at 52.55
Sirius (SIRI) buy 1.55, stop loss at 1.55, target 1.95. SIRI has been trending upward. They pulled off the recent high of 1.74 and appear to have based at 1.53. An ABC projects to 1.97. SIRI closed at 1.93
Citigroup ( C ) sell short at 5.00, stop loss at 5.00, target 4.00. C is approaching 5.00. Each time C gets up to 5 they sell off, we are looking for the same this time. C closed at 4.55
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