Financial
Focus Advisory Services, LLC.
781-829-8626
Show
Call-In Number 888-205-2263
Listen
anytime on the web at
FinancialFocusAdvisoryServices.com
May
1, 2009
Suggested Trades:
Brunswick Corp (BC) sell short at 6.00, stop loss at 7.00, target
4.00. Though we are approaching boat
season, it is difficult to believe that there will be significant demand for
boats in this environment. Lets take advantage of the recent
bounce to go short.
Ericson (ERIC) buy 8.50, stop loss at
8.25, target 9.50. ERIC has been in a
volatile upward trend, they got it hard yesterday toward the support trend
line. We are buying the sell with a stop
below yesterday’s low, with a target of the recent highs over 9.50.
This Morning:
Yesterday the markets started positive then drifted down to even
by the session’s end.
This morning the futures are up a bit, Dow 32, Nasdaq 5, S&P 4.
Market
Summary (updated each Monday)
S&P 500
The markets seem to be looking to the
bright side of reports and earning, reflecting a bit of positive
sentiment. Though not great, the early
earnings reports are showing in line or slightly better results with more
clarity in their guidance. It looks as
if the markets have built in the worst, and if we don’t get worse than the
worst, we may have some strength to hold here.
However, notice that over the past few
weeks the momentum has dried up. We have
one significantly weak day, then spend the remainder
of the week making up for it. Last week,
though the end of the week sounded strong, the S&P closed down 3 points and
formed a Hanging Man candle formation.
This is a potential top that needs to be confirmed with a down week.
Sometimes a picture is worth a thousand
words so………….
S&P Daily, see the resistance trend
line, we are through it but no great surge:
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/^GSPC_04_24_16_11_1240603871.png
S&P Weekly, though up off lows,
does not look like stellar gains, nor overwhelming
momentum:
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/^GSPC_04_24_16_12_1240603922.png
S&P Monthly, looks like the double
bottom is holding:
http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartLib/^GSPC_04_24_16_13_1240603989.png
We have been watching the confluence
area of the October Lows, November Lows and the Lows of 2002. We took these out a couple of weeks ago and
rebounded back. We are right at the confluence
of the 2002 low of 768, low of November which was 741, and the October low of
839.
Though not off to the races, we had
been discussing how oversold the market was and how it was due a bounce. It appears that the bounce is underway and we
need to see signs of strength before and midterm or long term buying is
recommended. Now we are showing short
term overbought, so a couple down days may be in order. We have symmetrically recovered the four down
weeks with four up weeks, now slowing as we formed a Hanging Man last week.
A nice recovery, but still in the
confluence zone.
Some
Key Figures:
Oil – $ 51 – up 1 for the week and back
over $50
Gold
- Closed at 912, up 43 points and back above
900
Euro – 132, bouncing around 130
Yield 10 year note – 2.99, stable just
below 3%
Next
week's economic calendar:
Earnings – for a schedule see
http://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html
Monday – None
Tuesday – Consumer Confidence
Wednesday – GDP and FOMC
Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims, Income
and Spending, Employment Cost Index, Chicago PMI
Friday – Consumer Sentiment, ISM, Factory Orders, Vehicle Sales
Positions:
Procter & Gamble (PG) buy 50.00, stop loss at 48.00, target
54.00. PG has been trending upward
making higher highs and higher lows. We
put our stop below the recent low and the 50 day moving average as we look
toward the trend continuing. PG closed
at 49.44.
Nokia (NOK) buy 13.75, stop loss at
13.00, target 15.10. NOK has been
trending upward using the 20 day moving average as a guide. They pulled back then traded higher
yesterday. We are trading off of
yesterdays move with our stop below Tuesday’s low. Our initial target is the recent high of
15.16. NOK closed at 14.14, but we
missed our entry by .12.
Fortune Brands (FO) buy 38.00, stop loss at 34.00, target
43.00. FO has been trending upward in
ABC formations. They just finished
another retracement and break of the new C point. The ABC projects to 43.82, this correlates to
the recent high of 43.00, so we’ll use the lower of the two targets. FO closed at 39.31
Activision (ATVI) buy 10.40, stop loss at 9.75, target 11.50. ATVI traded up off of a higher low late last
week following a higher high. We are
looking for the trend to continue. ATVI
closed at 10.77
International Paper (IP) buy 10.50, stop
loss at 9.50, target 13.00. IP had a bunch of resistance at 10.00. This was the high from 3.25.09, but also a
triple bottom from November, December and January. Thy pushed through
on good volume. We are looking for a
move toward the top of the channel they had during that triple bottoming
process. IP closed at 12.66
Flextronic (FLEX) buy 3.75, stop loss at 3.40, target
4.50. FLEX has been following the 20 day
moving average. We are looking to ride
the trend to the next swing high of 4.52 on 11.04.08. FLEX closed at 3.88
United States Natural Gas Fund (UNG) sell short at 13.75, stop los
at 14.50, target 10.00. UNG has been
drifting lower, they found support at 15, but that recently broke. UNG closed at 13.13
TransOcean (RIG) buy 65.00, stop loss at 61.00,
target 75.00. RIG is trading in un an upward channel coming off of Monday and Tuesday
morning’s retracement. We are looking
for the higher highs to continue. RIG closed at 67.48
Taiwan Semi (TSM) buy 9.30, stop loss at
8.90, target 10.50. TSM pulled back on
Monday then put in a tweezers bottom at 9.00 Tuesday and Wednesday. Our stop is just below the tweezers bottom. We hit on TSM
Infineon Technologies (IFNNY) buy 2.00,
stop loss at 1.60, target 2.75. IFX
pushed up and through the top of the gap left open from 12.03.08. They pulled back a bit yesterday with the
market, but still remain above the 20 day ema and on
a nice upward trajectory. Our initial
target is the high of 11.25.08 with a stop at the 20 day ema. IFX closed at 2.56
IShares Health Sector (IYH) buy 50.00, stop loss
at 47.90, target 54.00. The health
sector has been gaining attention lately and they are pushing through the top
of the 48 – 50 channel. Our stop is just
below the channel with the target being below the January and February highs. IYH closed at 49.37
Masco (MAS) buy 8.65, stop loss at 7.25, 10.50. MAS is breaking through resistance at 8.00,
we are looking for an ABC to 10.56. MAS
closed at 8.86
Forest Oil Corp (FST) buy 16.00, stop
loss at 15.00, target 19.75. FST is
trending upward in increasing volume as it makes its way back up toward the top
of the channel where it has found resistance around 20. FST closed at 16.00
Kohls (KSS) buy 45.00, stop loss at 43.00, target 50.00. KSS pulled back to the 20 day moving average
then pushed up to continue its upward trend.
Our stop is below the 20 at 43.16.
KSS closed at 45.35
AU Optronics (AUO) buy
9.50, stop loss at 8.75, target 12.00.
AUO has been trending upward nicely as well,
they too are using the 20 day as support.
So we place our stop recommendation just below the 20 day and a target
of the September resistance at 12.00.
AUO closed at 10.85
Bare Escentuals (BARE) buy 5.50, stop
loss at 4.75, target 7.75. BARE broke through
resistance at 5.50. We are looking for
the next resistance to come at the 200 day moving average, which is currently
at 7.93. We hit big on BARE
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) buy 3.60, stop loss at 3.00, target
4.70. AMD is trying to take out the C point of an
ABC. Our projection is 4.69. Our stop of 3.00 allows for a day or two resistance at 3.80 where it had an intra-day spike on volume
on 4.01.09. AMD closed at 3.61
Terra Industries (TRA) buy 27.25, stop loss at 26.00, target
30.00. TRA has been trending upward
using the 20 day moving average for support.
Yesterday the formed a nice hammer with the
shadow breaking the 20 day and the body set right on it. We have our stop placed just below yesterday’s
shadow. TRA closed at 26.50
Devon Energy (DVN) buy 49.00, stop loss
at 46.00, target 56.00. DVN energy is
showing signs of strength along with some other energy stocks. We are looking for an ABC off of this week’s
low to run to 56.87. DVN closed at 51.85
Allscripts (MDRX) buy 10.50, stop loss at 9.50, target 13.00. MDRX broke through resistance at 10, then
pulled back to test and held, then lifted off Friday on increasing volume. We are projecting an ABC to 13.03. MDRX
closed at 12.42
IBM (IBM) buy 100.00, stop loss at 96.00,
target 108.00. IBM took out the previous
high on strong volume. We are projecting
an ABC to 108.64. Our stop is below
yesterday’s low. IBM closed at 103.21
JA Solar (JASO) buy 3.40, stop loss at
2.75, target 5.00. JASO has been
trending upward. They formed a high
volume Bullish Belthold on 3.26.09,
they are now retracing that on decreasing volume. We are looking for the bottom of that candle
to hold and the overall upward direction to continue toward the high of 5.38
where they found resistance in January.
JASO closed at 3.51
Mosaic (MOS) buy 42.00, stop loss at 38.00, target 55.00. MOS is trending upward
using the 50 day moving average as support.
We are looking for trend to bring us to the top of the candle formed on
10.02.08. MOS closed at 40.45
Silver Wheaton (SLW) buy 8.00, stop loss
at 7.00, target 10.00. SLW broke out on
huge volume yesterday as the price of silver moved higher. SLW closed at 7.62
St Jude Medical (STJ) buy 34.00, stop
loss at 34.00, target 40.00. STJ has
been trending upward making higher highs and higher lows. Our initial target is at the recent high with
our stop below last week’s low. STJ
closed at 33.52
Sprint (S) buy 3.20, stop loss at 2.75, target 4.50. S broke through resistance
of 3.00 on big volume. The next swing
point is 4.50. We are looking for this
3.00 to be the new support. S closed 4.36
Disclaimer:
This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered to be a solicitation or an offer to sell securities or investment advisory service. Trading in securities such as stocks and options involves significant risk and should not be done without serious independent study. Subscribers may make trading decisions based on the content of this newsletter but in no case will Leo Leydon or any affiliates be liable for any repercussions. Leo Leydon, affiliated parties and clients of related parties may hold positions or trade in securities included within this letter. The information contained in this newsletter is obtained from sources that we believe are accurate however we can not and do not guarantee or warrant the accuracy of this information. Information and comments within this newsletter should not be interpreted to indicate that past performance is indicative of future results. All rights reserved.
